Console War: 120 million Wiis served

"Nintendo's market strategy of attracting the casual gaming audience is having continued success. According to figures released by ELSPA and Chart-Track at the beginning of this month, over a million Wii units were sold in the UK over the last half year. [The Wii] accounts for over 50% of the overall market share in hardware units including the PS3 and Xbox 360."

Nintendo President Satoru Iwata is so happy he thinks the Wii could outsell the PS2's 120 million consoles sold record.

What does this mean? This means that the Wii's transformation of what gaming is - is well underway. Just as Sony changed gaming forever by marketing games to the cool joe, the average jock, the Wii will have a similar or greater impact.

It also means that all this stuff you read from videogame "journalists", and I use the term loosely, wherein they deride the Wii or cast it in an ill light, unsure of what it means, portraying it as a family, silly affair, is complete and utter crap.

Sony is struggling to keep the PS3 from becoming the next Sega Saturn. The 60GB PS3 is already dead - they aren't making any more.

There are many people who may be so stubborn as to never get buy a Wii just because, well, it's a Wii, or it was made by Nintendo. I find that silly. I have no brand loyalty. I left Nintendo when the N64 came out and never looked back, not even for the NDS (I acquired two after my kids got their Wii). Gamers can ride the revolution now or - wait.

There are two good reasons (for a gamer) to not get a Wii right now:

1. Not enough games you like, depending on your favorite genre(s), such as Roll-Playing Games, First-Person Shooters, Basketball, Soccer, Tennis, Hokey, Strategy Games, etc. Name your must-have genre that is absent on the Wii, and you have a good reason.
2. The best is on the horizon. Most gaming developers are playing catch-up, so if the plan is to wait until the menu becomes enticing, and you're well handled in the mean-time, then that makes sense.

There are some reasons it's not a good idea (for a gamer):

1. If you miss out on a Wii deliberately, you are in effect, if this thing sells as many units as a PS2 one day, or even comes close, writing yourself off from a large portion of gaming history.
   

Did you "miss" the PS2? Anyone? I'm sorry, you're not a gamer if you did. You are a PC gamer, perhaps, or a Nintendo fan-boy, but you are not a gamer, which is a beast that consumes all things games, regardless of platform. No, if you avoid the Wii, just because you don't want one, now you are, in effect, a platformist - someone who holds on to beloved platforms. Many of us have done it. Anyone here who didn't buy an XBOX? Oh! Hands, they do go up! And yet somehow, PS2 fans have bought in to the XBOX 360, begrudgingly - they even write songs about their lament.

120 million? I'm no optimist (I'm a realist), but I can see why Iwata had the balls to say that the Wii could break that record. I just think he should have had Reggie say it.

If there are 80 million PS2 owners out there (I'm sure some folks bought 2 PS2's, I have no idea how many), the current generation hasn't made much of a dent in them, and therein lies the reasoning: the current game console generational war is bigger than folks imagined, because I'm willing to bet that there are a lot of Wii owners who never had a PS2. And folks - they aren't gamers.

And what of the people who avoid the Wii? If this thing outsells the PS2, can they say they're a gamer? Or a knight of some forgone era? We call them platformists. They're great knights. They stick to what they believe in, and if an image or a line doesn't fit them, they don't wear it. There are Nintendo fanboys as well as Nintendo Haters, they're both knights with different banners to wear. Microsoft is corruption, they don't have knights that hold aloft their cause, they have mercenaries who hold up their XBOX Live banner. No one believes Microsoft is out to make the world a better place, but Nintendo and Sony fanboys do believe that, roughly - whatever their respected camp gives them speaks to a need within them that jives with their internal structure of how things ought to be.

Gamers, by our nature, are promiscuous. If it's a game and it's good, we'll try it. We're gypsies, neither knight nor mercenary. We're ignoble, cheap, easy, and frowned upon by the old guard. Do you know what I'm describing? I'll give you a hint:

I'm not describing today's definition of gamers, I am describing what's coming.

Human nature demands that there will always be Knights (fanboys, loyalists, whatever) to a given market brand. Humans like to look at something (such as a label) and feel safe in our purchase of it. Sony used to thrive on this - people paid more to have the Sony name on their TV, it used to mean quality.

But if you stay in the game long enough you begin to realize: It's not about the console, it's about the games. Every gamer knows this, yet so few live it.

XBOX 360: Microsoft finally agrees - it sucks balls.

Microsoft has allocated over one billion dollars to extend all XBOX 360's warranties by 3 years, because so many of the machines are going bad.

The glitches, and the bad publicity, could weigh the company down as it claws for market share in the highly competitive console market. In May, the Xbox 360 ranked No. 2 in unit sales behind Nintendo's Wii, but still beat out Sony's Playstation 3, according to data from NPD Group.

Recall the failure rate of these things?

Bach said the company made some manufacturing and production changes that he expects will reduce Xbox 360 hardware lockups, but he declined to identify the problems or say which others might remain. Microsoft said it will record a charge of up to $1.15 billion for its fourth fiscal quarter, which ended June 30, to cover the additional costs associated with the warranty extension.

I'd love to know what gamers can expect to go wrong...

Matt Rosoff, an analyst at the independent research group Directions on Microsoft, estimates that Microsoft's entertainment and devices division has lost more than $6 billion since 2002.

Microsoft has written down larger amounts in the past - more than $10 billion in the late 1990s related to investments in telecommunications companies, and more than $5 billion related to antitrust issues - but a $1 billion write-down for one division in one quarter is significant.

"It suggests the problem is pretty widespread," Rosoff said.

I'm sure Microsoft is making this public before E3 so that it can focus on other news during E3, just as when Nintendo revealed that Project Revolution's name was the Penis, I mean the Wii. Honestly I've gotten used to that name - you can't make penis jokes when your 2 year-old says "Wii?" But I digress.

PS3, XBOX 360 news

• Shocker: Retailers confirm - the XBOX 360 is horribly unreliable (25-33% returns instead of the usual 3-5%).
• Sad Fate: PS3 not only loses exclusive titles, but in some cases, the whole damn game.
• Sega says the PS3 is too expensive, by way of saying Sony needs to reduce the price (that's the same thing).
• Teh Interwebs agrees on this issue.

Sony corporate director Masanao Maeda said concerning the PS3 "Name brand, price and software are what count; since it's getting difficult to make software availability a differentiating factor, superior marketing and pricing strategy will be the key for Sony."

I think that's stupid. Price, Price, software, and then name brand are what count. Price has always "counted." Price is what kept the XBOX 360 from becoming the new, dominant force before Nintendo's Wii ever arrived. Price is what signaled the death knell of the PS3. Price is why you go to cheap doctors or don't get the best attorney or don't send you children to private school.

Price, mutherfricker, is the reason.

Nintendo was Right: Microsoft Agrees

In typical fashion, Microsoft plans on taking over the world - now they're going to attack the "Casual Market" and focus on "peripheral based" gaming. Of course, in doing so they are validating Nintendo on every level possible:

1. Casual Gamers matter (I've explained exactly what those are, unlike everyone else who doesn't have a clue yet pretends to).
2. Motion Sensative Controllers and Pointing Devices trump dicking around with your thumbs using Gamepads.
3. Price matters.

Actually, we've yet to see if Microsoft can do anything about #3, as their Xbox 360 can't get much cheaper.

Where the PS3 and XBOX 360 Failed

Dove cued me into an excellent revelation:

The real failure of the XBOX 360 and the PS3 are the same: Sony and Microsoft both made the console that their fanbase said they wanted. They assumed that people would answer "within reason" or "within how much they would be willing to pay for what they say they want."

Of course, people don't do that. The first rule of usability is "don't listen to users." (Instead, watch what they do.)

Nintendo came along and said "Well, our research says they'll spend $250. What can we cram into that?"

The PSP is what everyone said they wanted - a GameBoy Advance that plays 3d games. Then the NDS comes out with less power and trumps it - because it lets you do something new, to interact in a new way. The Wii is essentially the same. It's called "Blue Ocean" strategy in business leet speak.

GP2X versus PSP
This is something I see come up a lot, for some reason. GP2X versus PSP? Not truly comparable, because the GP2X is such a niche device. If you want a handheld that does non-3d emulation, you get a GP2X. You are already "not normal" for even wanting emulation, let alone open source.

If you could only get one, as always, the question boils down to "What kind of games do you want to play, and how much are you willing to pay for them?"

Truimph of the Wii

Gamers have yet to realize: the war is already lost / won.

Wii continues to trample people, competitors alike.

4.7 million Virtual Console titles sold, 100 available to buy. That may not me Microsoft XBOX Live's Marketplace, but it kicks Sony Online Entertainment's PS3 Home right in her tender middle, then knees her in the face on the way down. But lately, beating on the PS3 is easy.

If a Wii Hard Drive does come out, I will scream "THAT'S SO FUCKING STUUUPIIID!" Why? Because the Wii should allow you to plug any USB Hard Drive into it - and then let Nintendo make money on the Virtual Console sales. Who cares how they download it? Just get them to download more!

Some proprietary Hard Drive Box comes out and I will scream. I really will. You just won't hear it from where you're sitting.

Bill Gates thinks motion controllers are hot, but is such an asshole he can't admit Nintendo gave him that idea, and tries to say his idea is different than the Wii. Who does he think he's fooling? I suppose experience has taught him it doesn't matter: getting a product out people buy does.

Wii: Six Month Review and Metroid Prime 3: With or Without Multiplayer - good reads if done so in order.

Sorry for not posting links but I've read so much lately - the Bill Gates thing was over a Tennis Racket - he said "You can't use a Tennis Racket with your Wii" uhhhh okay - yeah. Try asking Joe Schmoe to swing a tennis racket around for two hours instead of a Wiimote and see what happens to his arm.

Why the Wii will Prevail

It's all summed up here:

1. The console is systematically outselling every other new generation game console (XBOX 360 and PS3) every month.
   
2. Games cost less for developers to make, and take less time.
3. Whereas XBOX 360 and PS3 caters most to men, the Wii has a greater success rate at getting everyone in the family to play it - this means that the Wii should sell more games than a console the family buys for their teenage son who plays it in his room.
   

That's what Nintendo is banking on. While the Xbox 360 and the PS3 are played primarily by young men, the Wii is played on average by more people in each household. That means Nintendo has a good shot at selling more games per console than its rivals, said George Harrison, Nintendo of America's senior vice president of marketing.

"Before, it was the teenage boy playing by himself," Harrison said. "Now, the whole family is playing."

Dave's take? It's obvious, and anyone who thinks otherwise lets their emotions rule them too much. Welcome to a changing market.

News Dave Finds Interesting

(or his news associate, Harry the Wonder Llama)

• Pedophiles get a Second Life, while not having a first
  Skin them alive! Peel them like bananas!
• Wii continues PS3, Xbox 360 slaughter in Japan
  Skin them alive! ... oh wait, that's pedophiles.
• Why Sony doesn’t deserve the PS3
  Compares Commadore's mishandling of the Amiga, which was ahead of its time, and Sony's handling of the PS3.
• PS3 sales still low in Japan
  The terrible beating continues!
• Namco-Bandai Disappointed with PS3 Sales, Announces New Plans
  And the new plans are "Don't publish for the PS3 for a while."
• Nintendo Dominates Top 20 Titles in Japan
  Hardly a surprise, but also not something to dismiss, either.

Indie MMO
Somehow, I hit the Indie (independant) MMO Developer's Conference, found the college-funded Mermaid Ecological/Social MMO interesting, went to their site, found the official link to the conference, the speakers and what they were presenting, and found the two main toolkits for building an MMO:

• Multiverse - seemingly the best development kit.
  
• Torque Developer Kit, apparently available through Garage Games and a few other folks.
• Realm Crafter - something that has its own section on the MMORPG Maker Forum, along with Torque.
  

EA says "Mass of Sequels" equals "Strong Lineup"

"We have a strong lineup for the year ahead," said Warren Jenson, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer. "We expect to launch more than fifteen games based on wholly owned properties - including Medal of Honor Airborne, Army of Two, Boogie, MySims, Battlefield Bad Company, SKATE and Need for Speed."
[Source]

Okay... so "mass of sequels" == "strong lineup"??

Learn to not read what they say, but what is really going on.

PS3: What, no jokes anymore?

Two important things to notice:

1. Folks aren't bashing the PS3 as much lately on the Internet.
2. The 20GB model PS3 has been largely discontinued.
   

I've noticed that folks on the Internet aren't bothering to bash the PS3 as much anymore (heck they aren't even searching for it), and that while Sony dropped the lower-end PS3, Microsoft never had to drop their bottom-of-the-barrel XBOX 360. Why?

Well, the answer is related.

As a friend of mine pointed out, we mock the things that we are afraid our friends might buy, but consider ourselves as having enough knowledge to think that we know something they don't and should warn them. That's something humans do. We don't bother mocking things we don't think our friends will buy - for example, nobody is going around mocking Betamax today, or the NCage.

The PS3 has passed that critical point where the hardcore (those of use who read everything, delve into everything about our hobby) feel that the PS3 is no longer a viable alternative that their friends might pick up.

The thing nobody says about the 20GB PS3 being discontinued is that it's the beginning of the end for the PS3 itself. The XBOX 360 Core model never went out of production because it kept selling, even though any gamer worth his salt would go for the XBOX 360 with a Hard Drive in it.

The PS3 is pretty much the same, only those who were going to buy PS3's, have largely already done so, and the whole crowd that would make up the "core system" buyers can't, or won't, because of the price.

The PS3 is dead. It is doomed. It is on its way to Saturn land. I am no longer sure it will limp by like the N64 or the GameCube; it's possible, but the future is unclear.

Update:
Dove just made a point: developers can't make games for the PS3 and make a profit. The flagship titles that the PS3 currently has use only 20% of its power, another 80% sits idly.

To the end consumer, what they see is 80% of what they paid for - does nothing.

In order for developers to make games that used the system, they would have to spend a solid year just on development of an engine and charge up to $100 per game to the consumer.

I update my prophecies to "The PS3 will not slide by" for the simple reason that the N64 (I think) and the GC (I know) did not operate at a loss per unit. Sony has over-extended themselves, and that would have worked if the system sold, or wasn't a billion dollars, or both. And so they eat cost, and eat even more for unsold units.

Sony, Microsoft have Barred the Gates

Sony and Microsoft have effectively barred the gates from people buying their consoles, because they have tauted the HDTV capabilities so much, the average consumer thinks he needs an HDTV (a whole new expense factor) in order to enjoy an XBOX 360 or PS3.

As an employee at a video game store, I get questions asking about the graphical differences between the current and next-gen consoles occasionally.

Every once in awhile, a customer will try and "confirm" with me that you can't tell the difference between current and next-gen games without an HD television.

It comes in different forms but it is a perception among some uneducated casual gamers that you need an HDTV to enjoy the 360 or PS3. They're wrong of course but it is something that has been created amongst some because of all the "HD" marketing of the 360 and PS3.

[source] Around 30% of the TV owning populace have some form of HDTV now, which is not a lot. I know that one thing that has occured to me is that if I got a PS3 or XBOX 360 I would have to hook it up to an LCD computer screen, because there's no way I'm paying thousands more for something else that doesn't last as long as a computer LCD display, or a $2,000 LCD TV. And I'm not sure PS3's hook up to computer LCD's...

The Wii, meanwhile, has stayed accessible - possibly too much. Many Obsessive / Hardcore Gamers view it with distain, but others are jumping in.

What are Hardcore and Casual Gamers?

Folks assume that the hardcore is all that matters, or that the hardcore is all that can support the videogame industry, but the changing market tells us this isn't so, as well as some basic math and common sense. Avid moviegoers do not outnumber casual moviegoers, nor can our numbers save movies we love (Serenity) compared to the all powerful might of the masses. This same truth of human nature (obsessives versus casuals) is true in gaming.

Games Sorted by Score on Metacritic

• Wii 9 bad, 28 okay, 8 good.
• PS3 2 bad, 12 okay, 20 good.
• XBOX 360 9 bad, 80 okay, 80 good. (Odd, same number good and okay, but I double checked, and that's accurate)

What These Figures Mean
I find it interesting that the XBOX 360 has racked up as many bad games (listed in Metacritic) in 16 months as the Wii has in 4, and that the PS3 (which has been out almost exactly as long as the Wii has) has 60% more good games than the Wii, and 22% of the Wii's bad games amount.

My theory is that game developers are having an easier time grappling with familiar (traditional) consoles, and that the casual games coming out for the Wii are ill received by hardcore gamers. Basically, developers are still figuring out how to use the Wii's control scheme to make fun game and nobody has made a Wii game that can keep the Hardcore Enthusiasts happy, except Nintendo with "Zelda: Twilight Princess."

Now the inevitable question comes... "If the Wii is doing so poorly with its games, why does it continue to sell so well?"

The Answer Is:
The answer isn't "People are stupid and they'll wake up soon and the Wii will die." The answer is "Because there are so many more casual gamers than hardcore gamers like to think, it really doesn't matter. They are legion, and they will crush you."

The Reason Behind The Answer Is:
Casual Gamers are those that buy 4-6 games a year on average. Hardcore Gamers are those that, as soon as they beat one game (which takes them little time), they buy another, and so they buy 12 or more games a year. If you buy this much, you are hardcore. If you would buy this much but you have to eat, you are hardcore. If that really seems like a waste of money, but you love a good game, you are casual. If you can spend 100 hours on one game you love, but you don't bother reading about every new game that comes out, you are casual. If you read exhaustively everything about games even if you don't own a system (or exclusively read about every game for "your" console), you are hardcore.

Wake up, my fellow Hardcore, we are only about 15% of the gamer population.

Hardcore Gamers versus Casual Gamers... Casual Wins:
Lets take 100 gamers. 15 are HARDCORE, and 85 are casual. Over the course of the year, assuming each HARDCORE gamer buys 12 games, and each casual gamer buys 5, what do we have?

• 15 HARDCORE gamers out of 100 total gamers will buy 180 games in one year.
• 85 casual gamers out of 100 total gamers will buy 425 games in one year.
• HARDCORE gamers account for 34% of all games bought in one year. Casual gamers account for 66%.

The Myth that there are More Hardcore than Casual Gamers is a Lie Because:
Now, my math is fictional. I don't have the exact ratio of HARDCORE to casual gamers. But think of cars - some people are seriously freaked out about their cars. They buy chrome parts, wash them and take them to shows, read car magazines, collect car memorabilia and watch car shows. Most people just drive their cars, or love the one car they are in. What is their percentage versus the car enthusiasts?

Human nature stays constant over the course of our short lives - evolution takes longer. It follows that gamers show a similar trend of obsessive gamer and casual gamer as car lovers follow a similar trend of obsessive and casual car lover (versus people who, you know, drive something). Most people who love their cars don't subscribe to car magazines, let alone anything else.

Hardcore Gamers is a bad term, we are Obsessive Gamers:
We aren't hardcore, we are obsessive. That is what we do. Hardcore just sounds cool, and casual doesn't, hence my homo-italics. By definition, the obsessives of any product industry are not the majority, we are the overly vocal minority. Up until now (the Wii), most game systems have completely catered to the obsessive gamers, and now they have figured out that casual gamers make money too.

Does this spell DOOM for the obsessive gamer? Not really, because games casual gamers like, obsessive gamers also tend to like; however, an obsessive gamer needs deeper layers in a game to keep him busy and coming back for more, but both appreciate an approachable game.

Summary:
Hardcore Gamers are really obsessive gamers, and Casual Gamers outnumber them. We are witnessing a changing market, and no matter what vitriole we spew out, it's going to keep changing. I hate to use the pun, but the revolution is here, and now that companies have seen money, it's not going to stop.

One Man Understood What Market He Was In

Satoru Iwata is CEO of Nintendo of Japan, the mother company of Nintendo of America, and the lead behind the Wii.

What he said in a recent interview which named him one of the world's leading CEO's, was telling:

"We are not fighting against other companies—we are fighting against ignorance of video games."

The RIAA is guilty of more than suing American families, it is guilty of not understanding what market it is in.

"The RIAA is the "recording industry" and they represent the interests of the record labels who, while they may claim are in the music business, appear to believe they're really in the "music selling business" rather than (as they really are) the "music entertainment business." They believe their job is to distribute music, promote it, and get people to buy it. They make money by keeping that system closed and locked down. If they recognized they were really in the "entertaining people with music business" they should only be ecstatic about new technologies and services that make their job easier."

This is profound because there is a similar fallacy in the Gaming Industry has: that great graphics motivates gamers, rather than appeases them. This is why games come out early and buggy - because distributors think that once a game's graphic engine is done, that is all that is needed. If a game has crappy graphics, we are not pleased, but if the game is itself is not fun, all the graphics in the world won't save it.

The ignorance of the Gaming Industry is that they think are in the Videogame Graphics Market, not the Videogame Entertainment Market, which is their actual market as evidenced by the Nintendo Wii.

Understanding that their market is not limited to hardcore gamers with large pockets is costing not only Sony, but Microsoft.

Next Generation News

Sony PlayStation 3

• PS3 selling well for price? Why February's NPD numbers don't condemn Sony's PS3.
• PS3 power shines a bit? The PS3 owns Folding@Home distributed processing.
• Sony wasn't trying to call Americans "cheap."
  

Nintendo Wii

• Wii has already passed 5 million mark in only 4 months - This puts the system at about half the install base of Microsoft's 360 in only 4 months.
• Wii bowls over retirees - My personal take is something different; note that throughout the article, only WiiSports is mentioned, yet the media carefully points out:
  

  While those rivals focused on cutting-edge graphics and high-tech bells and whistles, Nintendo focused on making game play easier, more intuitive and more appealing to a mass market.

  That bet paid off.

  Clearly, the Wii is the media's favorite child, not the XBOX 360 or PS3, which are machines they cannot understand.
  

Nintendo DS

• Heroes of Mana coming to the U.S. in Summer - it's a strategy game, not like Seiken Densetsu 3 or Secret of Mana (SD2) in the U.S.
• The one intelligent thing said in the Bright and Shiny Future of the PSP is about its competition: "DS may be missing a few voice-overs and some more expansive game concepts, but it has wooed away from consoles the epic Dragon Quest IX -- the shock that gamers expressed at that news showed that millions still didn't know that handheld gaming is no longer just Pokemon and Tetris."
  
  Everything else said is moronic, right down to "Sales have tipped in Nintendo's favor, but those numbers aside," uhh... what?

PC

• Guild Wars 2: Notable? This one has a persistent world, and still no monthly payments. Presumably they are trying to solve the "pure instancing outside of towns" problems that make it difficult to socialize, but ArenaNet folks don't give a clear answer of how the new system solves it, other than to make what you do in instances affect other areas and players.
• One item of interest is that the level cap will either be set at 100, or be removed altogether. I'd like to see the latter, at which point, I'd be interested to see how that works out.
• "Events will also offer a way for players of different levels to keep interacting in the persistent world - which is crucial, since right now, ArenaNet is planning a very high [100-plus], or possibly no level cap" Good idea; I hope they implement it well.
• My favorite might be "'Click to move' will be abandoned in favor of a more freedom-rich control scheme, including 'jumping, swimming, and sliding'."

There's a thread on this at Guild Wars Guru.

Ending the Wii is analogous to the Dreamcast debate

My words are in green. I am attempting to end the "The Wii is analogous to the Dreamcast" debate between myself and my very smart best male friend. Because this research represented an investment of my time, because my mind cannot keep track of factual details while his can, I didn't want to simply e-mail the work to him and have it be lost, so I present it here.

From Wikipedia:

Sixth generation

Main article: History of video game consoles (sixth generation)

This era began with the launch of the Sega Dreamcast in November 1998 in Japan and September 1999 in the U.S.. However, the impending and much-hyped PlayStation 2 competed with the Dreamcast before it was even released;

This is something the Wii did not face, because the XBOX 360 had already come out and failed to wow gamers because it was more of the same - graphics. The old industry illusion that graphics, not content, sells games, which is why games get released before they are ready - they are released as soon as the graphics engine is done (Neverwinter Nights 1 & 2, countless other games).

Also, the Wii's controllers created enough buzz that, along with Sony's Ross Perot messages concerning the PS3 (faltering, changing, unclear), the Wii surmounted this issue that the Dreamcast faced.

this, combined with Sega's tarnished reputation among Saturn owners and third party developers limited its adoption.

Again, the Dreamcast released with hardly any games, and it was 9 months into its life before it even had as many games as the Wii.

For more, see the Dreamcast launch.

The release of the anticipated Playstation 2 in March 2000 in Japan and October 2000 in the U.S. meant that the Dreamcast no longer enjoyed its status as the sole next-generation console. The brand Sony had established with the original PlayStation was a major factor in their victory, both in terms of securing a consumer base and attracting third party developers;

Here the tables are reversed: Sony is becoming the Sega Saturn - the system that is too difficult to program for (cell processors on the PS3 and badly meshed dual cores on the Saturn), too expensive ($400 Saturn versus $300 PlayStation), while the Microsoft XBOX 360 is enjoying developer support, entrenched console sales over 16 months (which effect game sales) and great games (such as Gears of War).

the gradual increase in one tending to reinforce the other. The PlayStation 2 was able to play DVDs and was backwards-compatible with PlayStation games, which many say helped the former's sales. Any user considering buying a DVD player or PlayStation could view the PlayStation 2 as a cost-effective alternative, and the system effectively had a back catalogue available before it even went on sale. The Dreamcast competed with the PS2 for several months however eventually Sega's financial troubles left over from the Saturn's failure began to really show themselves and the Dreamcast was discontinued by the time the console war proper began.

Nintendo does not have this massive debt problem.

The Xbox, despite the formidable financial backing of Microsoft and despite being more powerful than the PlayStation 2, has failed to significantly threaten the Playstation 2's place as market leader.

Has this changed? Possibly? Of course the PS3 is dying and the XBOX 360 is growing strong. The Wii, basically, needs only to see more games mature.

However, it has attracted a sizeable fanbase in the United States and Europe and has become a recognisable brand amongst the mainstream. In Japan its sales are far poorer, possibly due to the physical size of the console, and Microsoft's inability to acquire many major Japanese developers for their franchises as exclusives for the platform (contrast with Microsoft's multi-million dollar acquisition of UK developer Rare). However, there is a niche fanbase, particularly as the online services for the console, " Xbox Live", offers more to users than Playstation 2's non-centralized online system and Nintendo GameCube's near total lack of online games.

Nintendo struggled with their own brand images, particularly the family-friendly one cultivated during the 1990s.

While this is still the case (in fact, submit that you still have an anti-Nintendo bias as much as I do concerning their childish games), Nintendo is spinning this old, unshakable image to say "We're for casual gamers, not these elite hardcore bastards who give you all a hard time." The latter is never said, but every time you see a Nintendo ad showing people playing together in the same room, they are proselytizing the exact opposite of traditional, anonymous, abusive online play.

The bottom line is their old image is keeping away many of the same kinds of gamers the Wii wasn't specifically designed for anyway, and at this point, Nintendo's only major error is placing too much weight on casual gamers, and not enough on the grazing herd.

Nintendo's franchises and long history in the industry are failing to give them an advantage against the Xbox and PlayStation 2 . However the GameCube's low price point and the release of The Legend of Zelda: Collector's Edition has kept it competitive. Nintendo GameCube is in second place in total console sales in Japan, and in a close third place in the United States and Europe.

World wide sales figures

• Nintendo GameCube: 21.52 Million as of December 31, 2006 (Japan: 4.02, The Americas: 12.74, Other: 4.76)^[5]
• PlayStation 2: 115.36 Million shipped as of December 31, 2006 (Japan: 24.76, USA: 46.53, Europe: 44.07) ^[6]
• Sega Dreamcast: 10.6 Million as of December 2004 (Japan: 2.30, Other: 8.30 )^[3]
• Xbox: more than 24 Million as of May 10, 2006^[7]

The PlayStation 2 beat the Japanese school uniform miniskirts off of every other console and then savaged them mercilessly. Put together , every competing console only accounts for 48.65% of console hardware sales.

I submit that, like the SNES and Genesis days, this current war will not have a clear winner, but rather a market where two consoles will survive nicely, just as the Genesis and SNES did (see the History of Videogames Part 3 which details the SNES and Genesis battle) .

Sales as of March 2007:

Console	Sales
Xbox 360	10,400,000
Wii	6,030,000
PS3	2,150,000

I'm not sure where they get these numbers, as VGcharts' worldwide graph conflicts.

Hopefully I have put to bed the comparison between the Sega Dreamcast and the Nintendo Wii. While the Dreamcast was considered "ahead of its time", this was more due to coming out between the window of the current generation and the next; the PS2's power overshadowed it.

The Wii may well be ahead of its time, but that is because of its controllers, and there is no game in town to threaten this - you can't wait and buy an XBOX 360 or a PS3 with controls like the Wii, and the SixAxis controller has met with as limited success as I first thought. The SixAxis is gimmicky, a Nunchuck and a Wii Remote put together is a different control scheme altogether.

Key points:

• Wii has no impending (or existing) console attacking its intended market (casual gamers and people who can't afford pricey systems). This brings up an obvious counter-point as to how many games casual gamers and poor folks buy, but it shows that the Dreamcast and Wii are not like.
  
• The Dreamcast was launched with next to no games, 4 months earlier than planned, the Wii was launched with a record-setting 17(?) games (as of records for this generation).
• Brands are something the Dreamcast battled, but the Wii only has to fight it's own brand - literally, Nintendo's childishness, which has been spun as "games anyone can play," every commercial showing adults or families. The Wii, unlike the Dreamcast, is not facing an impossible behemoth; that enemy has slain itself (Sony), so it has a unique window of opportunity the Dreamcast never had.
• The Wii can't be one-upped by hardware, while the Dreamcast was. The Wii is known to be less powerful, but it's got it's controllers and its price point, and this perception that filters through the New York Times to TV to word of mouth and blogs. The Dreamcast was never viral outside of the traditional hardcore.

If anything, the only relevant similarities I see between the Wii and the Dreamcast is that they are both less powerful than the Sony and Microsoft consoles, and it ends there.

Will EA abandon the Wii? No, because the Wii means money, and EA never leaves money. Why does the Wii mean money when the Dreamcast didn't? Because the trump factors the Dreamcast faced, and EA saw on the horizon, don't exist here.

Even EA said they don't expect to outsell Nintendo's 1st Party line, but plan on being a healthy 2nd place (I read this on Gamasutra, I think, but I can't find the article).

We may be back to discussing the future impact of the Wii itself, but we can at least close the analogy between the Wii and the Dreamcast failure.

Various Consoles

Originally posted here.

I have a PSX, PS2, XBOX, Wii, GBA, GBA:SP, two NDS's, and a Wii in my house - these are not all mine per se (I have four children) but I play them all.

XBOX 360? Too many FPS games that require me to use my thumbs, not a mouse. Sorry, personal preference, I grew up with the original DOOM on 486 66MHz computers, and 386's and IBM XT's before that. Thumbs are not dexterous. Mice are. So are pointing devices like... the Wii has!

PS3? Far too expensive.

Wii? Perfect price (any higher would be too much) and my kids love it. The controllers are incredibly fun and make everything old seem new again, as the song goes. Still, I rarely play it. Why? Well I need RPG's, sandbox games, good FPS and games deeper than Rayman and Warioware. Zelda? After Oblivion, Neverwinter Nights, and Ocarina of Time, I just couldn't plod through another. Terrible music too. My 9yo daughter loves it.

NDS? I play this lots and lots. Only my computer sees more love. Why? Well it's had time to mature, I bought it after the Wii so it has tons of games I've never played before that are unlike games I've played in the past (a problem when you've been gaming constantly since the Atari 2600). My hope is the Wii will have the same happy ending.

GBA? Too hard to see.
GBA SP? Easy to see and hold, but there were never any games out for it that really seemed to hold me. For some reason the NDS breaks this rule.

XBOX & PS2 were great to have in their prime - I never had to care which system a game came out for.

PSX? I got this over the N64 because I saw the polygon specifications, the cartridge based format, and knew it just wasn't going to do as well. I loved my PSX, but the games are hard to go back to - 3d games are. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night is still fun, but that's not 3d.

Prior to that? I had a SNES late in it's life, NES all through it. I'm not into brand loyalty (used to love Squaresoft / Square / SquareEnix). Just so you know my tastes are games, not consoles. The Wii makes an exception due to its controllers.

Pink Nintendo DS

I purchased a pink Nintendo DS handheld gaming console for my daughters. Dad gets to play too.

Jaded Gamer Gets New Life
The problem with being 31 and having played games on most consoles and most of the computer greats is that everything becomes a derivative of something else - it's like writing music. With the advent of the Nintendo Wii's motion sensative (and pointer) controls, I've found that "everything old is new again."

The Truth about Game Conoles
Many people argue over the Wii's merits, the XBOX 360's entrenchment (which the Wii has met in installed base in 3 months, not 13), or Sony's PS3 debacle, but the core of the issue is spoken here: "That's the parable, I guess. A controller is as good as the game. A system is as good as its library. Far all these interstitial lamentations, all the saber rattling and console war propaganda, there is a simple remedy: a breathtaking exclusive experience." [source]

The NDS has given me games I've never played before, ever, as well as many I have, which I largely avoid. Like the Wii, it gives me exclusive experiences - though nothing breathtaking yet.

Does your XBOX 360 give you a breathtaking exclusive experience? If so, then that's your console; but remember, most exclusive games aren't really exclusive - they could be done elsewhere.

Exclusive (near Breathtaking) Experiences
I will go over the aspects of the NDS games we have that make them unique and fun to this jaded gamer. The latter ones listed are the best.

• Advance Wars: Second Strike
  There is nothing about this game that makes this turn-based strategy game stand out; it's fun, but not exclusive. It's cool having the second screen to read the information of a unit or square of terrain always on hand, but little else. I don't even bother using the stylus.
  
• Castlevania: Portrait of Ruin
  While a great game, and having the map always visible, or the character / bestiary window always open alternatively, is cool, basically I'm just glad to see a Castlevania game that lives up to the fun factor of Symphony of the Night on my PSX. It has two characters you control alternatively, the other always following you. Great fun. Nothing exclusive, and little use for the stylus.
  
• Phoenix Wright, Ace Attorney: Justice for All
  The first exclusive game - I've never played this kind of game before. You're in a Japanese courtroom, you're a defense attorney with amnesia trying to piece together your defense (and the case) on the fly. You have to notice key points of evidence easily overlooked, or even bad turns of phrase you can exploit against a prosection's witness. Very fun for a jaded gamer, as it's done well and I've never played anything quite like it, even in text / point and click adventure days.
  
• Hotel Dusk: Room 215
  The... best... game... period. It makes you turn your NDS and use it like a book. Unlike most "choose your own adventure" games, once you make a decision as to what question you ask, you'll often lose the other permanently - that's it! No finding out what that other line of questioning might have gained you. Exploration, thinking deeply about each of the characters you meet, and piecing together the novelesque puzzle of a world you're in. You're a proto-typical burnt out police detective turned traveling salesman / finder of people who don't want to be found, but the dialogue and artwork is amazingly good. I feel safe saying nothing like this has been done before.

I don't believe that Hotel Dusk: Room 215 or Phoenix Wright, Ace Attorney: Justice for All could be done on computers - why? Technically they're more than capable; the problem is what people expect from them. They'd expect 3d people in Hotel Dusk, not hand animated stills, and that would never work for the presentation. Phoenix Wright would be looked at as some sort of non-game game. The medium shapes the perception of the games.

Accessorize Your NDS
Get a G6 Lite and a Passcard 3; they are often bundled together. I'll speak no more on that.

Why I Bought an NDS
Maria Alejandra told me to. I was complaining about money, wasting money on my GP2X (which broke, shoddy manufacturing), and her counter was "Why don't you get that one that can play Brain Age?" I told her "Because it costs $130." Her response, "So?"

Microsoft Lies, PS3 is dying

Part 1: Microsoft Lies
We've all read/heard that the XBOX 360 has over 10 million units sold right? Wrong. That's how many they've made and sold to resellers, not how many are actually owned by playing gamers. That number is 4.5 million, not 10, not 10.1.

"NPD Group figures put Xbox 360's US installed base at 4.5 million, with Wii at 1.1 million and PlayStation 3 finding its feet with around 690,000 US owners by the end of 2006."

Part 2: The PS3 is Dying
If you're informed, you also know that there are PS3's languishing on store shelves, unbought.

"The closest thing to a proper study into the question of Sony's stock levels is a check of the channel carried out by American Technology Research pundit PJ McNealy, who found that 28 out of 52 stores polled had units of the PS3 in stock, while none had Wii units. SCEA claims that this has more to do with good management of the supply chain for PS3 than actual demand; online speculation, of course, points to underwhelming demand for Sony's expensive console."

Broken Blu-Ray and New Car Prices? You think that could make people not want a PS3? How about Not Enough Software, something all new consoles suffer from, stacked on top of that?

PS3, XBOX 360, Wii - not a weak console showing?

Why It's a Weak Console Generation:
My good friend, Kevin in Virginia, told me that this was the weakest console launch in history. His premise was that the XBOX 360 and PS3 really offered very little that was new to gamers, just increased graphics. PSX brought us 3d games - that was new. The NES brought us something new. But even though he can see this, he thinks the Wii offers us nothing new.

But he doesn't like the Wii.

Why It's Not a Weak Console Generation:
I'd point out that new consoles are selling as history dictactes. While he has a point as to the lack of innovation of Sony and Microsoft's products (PS3 Blu-Ray, another format like UMD? At least I like the specifications but what does increased storage at slower read times really offer games?) his arguement falls flat on its face when concerning the Wii. The fucker has gained awards from pundits who usually don't play games.

But Kevin doesn't like the Wii. That's okay, my cousin, Paul, isn't rushing out to buy one, either. They're both single males who enjoy multiplayer games.

How We Can Tell Sony is Losing:
This article/blog has enough historical statistics that give us a roadmap as to what Sony will have to do to overcome the XBOX 360. The SNES overtook the Genesis' two year lead, but it took a lot of doing. If Sony can't keep up with these monthly sales figures, the PS3 is in trouble.

I'll quote liberally...

Why the PS3 is Not a Sure Thing:
"Make no mistake, even coming off a record number of sales with the PS2, Sony has a very hard road ahead of it. No company in the history of gaming has won three generations in a row. Usual paths to downfall include pride and arrogance. Nintendo at one point had over 90% market share, only to drop to just 60% the following generation and lose the lead to Sony the next at roughly 30%. The gaming industry is one of the toughest to compete in. What may seem obvious years later could have been a great idea at the time."

"There are never clear answers as to what hardware will eventually win, but one thing is universal: if you fail to sell your game console you will lose. More importantly, if you fail to sell it in the first twelve months after the launch holiday, you will lose. This is even more compounded if you are not out before your primary competition."

What Sony Has To Do to Win:
"In order to pull this off, Sony will have to sell more systems than their competitors during the next twelve months. To determine how many they will have to sell, we will look at a bit of history and make a few educated guesses."

"So, at the end of the day, Sony will likely have to sell 14+ million systems during 2007. Figuring that 5 million are likely to sell with ease during the holiday rush in 2007 (October, November and December) and one million will sell with ease at the European launch of the PS3 in March, that leaves Sony with 8 million to sell in the remaining nine months. That is approximately 900,000 units per month. Europe is historically slower to pick up new consoles at their launch price, instead preferring to wait for price reductions - thus we will estimate a bit lower for sales each month for 2007 for Europe.

The likely monthly sales differential between the territories that will allow Sony to succeed is

300,000 Japan
300,000 US
200,000 Europe"

"How soon will we be able to tell? Realistically, not until early 2008. But, we should start getting an idea shortly. If Japanese weekly sales show less than 50,000 systems sold per week consistently through the first 3 months of 2007, Sony is in trouble. If the US shows less than 200,000 systems sold per month for the first three months of 2007, Sony is in trouble. Europe is all but impossible to track externally, so we unfortunately will be unable to determine results based on Europe at this time."

Why the PS3 Price Point Could/Will Kill It:
"...Unfortunately history does not currently take into account Sony’s price point on the PS3. Will consumers be able to afford or choose to afford the high price, or will they opt instead for the Xbox360 and/or Wii. On this point history does provide a limited amount of guidance.

Back in April of 2004 Microsoft dropped the price of the Original Xbox by $50 to $150. This put them at a $30 price advantage to Sony’s $180 for the PS2. In the US, Microsoft capitalised on this by having their first month ever to beat Sony in monthly sales in the US. The following month Microsoft all but equaled Sony’s sales in the US. It wasn’t until the month after that when Sony reduced the PS2 price to $150 that they briefly took back the lead. For the rest of that year they were neck and neck on sales. All of this while it is clear that Sony was leading overall in quantity and quality of game releases on its platform and had not yet hit the saturation point.

If a $30 price difference can even the playing field between the definitive leader and a distant second place, what will a $100 price difference do? What will happen if Microsoft drops the price of the Xbox360 by an additional $50 and Sony is unable to match them?"

$50? What about a $300 versus $500 price tag, or a $250 one as the Wii enjoys (while making a profit, not taking a loss)?

Summary:
"Can Sony sell 800,000 systems a month right now?
Can Sony win with a $100+ price difference with its nearest competitor?
Will history repeat itself?"

My answer is simple and quick: No, Sony can't, no they won't, and the PS3 is already doomed. Doomed to die like the Saturn or limp on like the GameCube, I'm not sure, but it's doomed. That's my prediction.

The PS3 already has units just sitting in Worst Buys and Cities of Circuits, Targets and Wally Worlds. Read the 'net - look at the pictures. People can't just walk up to a $600 behemouth and say "Hey, I'll buy that!" anymore than a $600 el-cheapo computer.

The only real battle is exactly as Bill Gates called it -- between the XBOX 360 and the Wii.

Think this generation is disinteresting? Probably for multiplayer afficianados with computers like Kevin and my cousin, Paul. What do motion-sensative, pointer controls do for them that they absolutely must have? Well since the Wii has no MMORPGs and no online games yet -- NOTHING!

But that doesn't alter reality.